New research suggests a way we can correct for a well-established bias in how we imagine our emotional reaction to future events. Just imagine for a moment how you would feel if you won the lottery tomorrow. Alternatively, imagine how would you feel if someone close to you was badly injured in an accident. Chances are that in imagining your own future feelings, you have overestimated their strength - both positive and negative.

Participants in this study were split into two groups and carried out a similar task of imagining their reactions to future events as you've just done. One group were asked to recall their worst experience, while the other group were asked to recall any bad experience.

What they found was that those people who had been asked to recall their worst experience were likely to make more moderate predictions about their future feelings. These more moderate predictions have been shown in previous research to be more accurate. This is because people tend not to experience the extremes of emotions that they often predict for themselves.

This has serious implications for all our decisions about the future. Are there things you need to do that you are avoiding, because you imagine they will be too painful? Research like this shows it's highly likely you are over-estimating the strength of your emotions. A way around this problem is to imagine the worst related thing that has happened to you personally and evaluate the future in this context.

Let me know if it works!
The least likely of times. How remembering the past biases forecasts of the future [via BPS Research Digest]

Making Habits, Breaking Habits

In his new book, Jeremy Dean--psychologist and author of PsyBlog--looks at how habits work, why they are so hard to change, and how to break bad old cycles and develop new healthy, creative, happy habits.

→ "Making Habits, Breaking Habits", is available now on Amazon.

Reviews
The Bookseller, “Editor’s Pick,” 10/12/12 “Sensible and very readable…By far the most useful of this month’s New You offerings.”

Kirkus Reviews, 1/1/13 “Making changes does take longer than we may expect—no 30-day, 30-pounds-lighter quick fix—but by following the guidelines laid out by Dean, readers have a decent chance at establishing fulfilling, new patterns.”

Publishers Weekly, 12/10/12 “An accessible and informative guide for readers to take control of their lives.”

→ You can dip into the first chapter, or check it out on Amazon.com.